Graphics: Biden hits 50 and smashes cash record, Trump lags behind
Joe Biden and Donald Trump resumed something like a traditional presidential campaign over the past seven days with the clock ticking ever closer to the November 3 election day in the United States.
The Democrat and Republican candidates crisscrossed the country to meet voters and win airtime, with the former vice president using his cash advantage – after another record-breaking fundraising month in September – to expand his ad buys and put the president’s campaign on the back foot in Texas, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, all states Trump won comfortably in 2016.
The national picture
The national polls have heavily favored Biden in the fallout period from the first presidential debate and Trump testing positive for COVID-19, and that trend has continued over the past seven days with the Democrat hitting the 50-percent mark for the first time.
Biden stretched his lead over Trump from 8.3 points to 8.6 over the week, leaving him in a strong position and suggesting the president will need everything to go right in the swing states if he is to have a chance of re-election – and will have to make the second presidential debate, scheduled for October 22, count.
High-quality individual national polls in recent days have consistently indicated Biden holds a double-digit lead, with YouGov, Reuters, NBC and NPR surveys suggesting Trump is down by at least 10 points.
In the generic ballot, a measure of which party voters intend to back in congressional elections in November, Democrats are leading the Republicans by 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average, up from 6.6 a week earlier. While the Democrats appear likely to retain control of the House of Representatives, the battle for an all-important majority in the Senate remains neck and neck.
The states that matter
The extent of Biden’s national polling lead suggests he’s almost certain to win the popular vote, just as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, but it’s the individual states that matter in the Electoral College system.
CGTN analysis of state polling indicates the Democrat has an advantage over Trump in many of the battlegrounds, though the margins are smaller than his national lead.